Raporo nshya yakozwe n’abafatanyabikorwa benshi ba politiki y’ingufu zishobora kuvugururwa REN21 yasohotse muri iki cyumweru isanga impuguke z’impuguke ku isi ku bijyanye n’ingufu zizeye ko isi ishobora kwimuka mu gihe kizaza cy’ingufu zishobora kuvugururwa 100% hagati mu kinyejana cya mbere.
Icyakora, icyizere ko bishoboka ko iyi nzibacyuho ishobora guhinduka kuva mu karere ujya mu karere, kandi hari abantu benshi bemeza ko inzego nk’ubwikorezi zifite ibyo zikora niba ejo hazaza habo hasukuye 100%.
Raporo yiswe REN21 Renewables Global Futures, yatanze ingingo 12 zo kujya impaka ku mpuguke 114 zizwi cyane z’ingufu zaturutse mu mpande enye z'isi. Icyari kigamijwe kwari ugukurura no gukurura impaka ku mbogamizi z’ingutu zihura n’ingufu zishobora kongera ingufu, kandi yitondera gushyiramo abashidikanya ku mbaraga z’amashanyarazi mu rwego rw’ababajijwe.
Nta biteganijwe cyangwa ibiteganijwe byakozwe; ahubwo, ibisubizo byimpuguke nibitekerezo byakusanyirijwe hamwe kugirango habeho ishusho ihamye yerekana aho abantu bizera ko ejo hazaza h'ingufu. Igisubizo cyagaragaye cyane ni uko twakuye mu kibazo cya 1: “100% ishobora kuvugururwa - ingaruka zumvikana z’amasezerano y'i Paris?” Kuri ibyo, abarenga 70% babajijwe bemezaga ko isi ishobora gukoreshwa 100% n’ingufu zishobora kongera ingufu mu 2050, impuguke z’i Burayi na Ositaraliya zikaba zishyigikiye cyane iki gitekerezo.
Muri rusange habaye "ubwumvikane bukabije" ko ibivugururwa biziganje mu rwego rw’amashanyarazi, impuguke zikaba zivuga ko n’amasosiyete mpuzamahanga mpuzamahanga ubu agenda ahitamo ibicuruzwa bitanga ingufu zishobora kongera ingufu haba mu bikorwa by’ishoramari ritaziguye.
Impuguke zigera kuri 70% zabajijwe zizeye ko igiciro cy’ibishobora kuvugururwa kizakomeza kugabanuka, kandi ko kizagabanya igiciro cy’ibicanwa byose by’ibicanwa bitarenze 2027. Mu buryo bumwe, benshi muri bo bizeye ko izamuka ry’umusaruro rusange rishobora kugabanuka bitewe no kongera ingufu z’ingufu, hamwe n’ibihugu bitandukanye nka Danemarke n'Ubushinwa byatanze nk'urugero rw'ibihugu byashoboye kugabanya ikoreshwa ry'ingufu nyamara bikishimira iterambere ry'ubukungu.
Ibibazo by'ingenzi byagaragaye
Icyizere cy'ejo hazaza hasukuye muri izo mpuguke 114 cyaranzwe no gukurikiza uburyo busanzwe bwo kwirinda, cyane cyane mu majwi amwe n'amwe yo mu Buyapani, Amerika na Afurika aho wasangaga abantu bashidikanya ku bushobozi bw'uturere bwo gukora neza ku mbaraga zishobora kongera ingufu 100%. By'umwihariko, inyungu zishingiye ku nganda zisanzwe z’ingufu zavuzwe nk’inzitizi zikomeye kandi zidindiza imbogamizi mu gufata ingufu nyinshi.
Raporo yasanze ku bijyanye n’ubwikorezi, “modal shift” isabwa guhindura byimazeyo inzira y’ingufu zisukuye. Gusimbuza moteri yaka na moteri y’amashanyarazi ntibizaba bihagije kugira ngo uhindure urwego, impuguke nyinshi zemeza ko mu gihe abantu benshi bitabira gari ya moshi aho kuba umuhanda ushingiye ku mihanda bizagira ingaruka zuzuye. Bake, ariko, bemeza ko ibyo bishoboka.
Kandi nk'uko bisanzwe, impuguke nyinshi zanenze guverinoma zananiwe gutanga politiki y’igihe kirekire kugira ngo ishoramari rishobora kuvugururwa - kunanirwa kw'ubuyobozi byagaragaye nko mu Bwongereza no muri Amerika, binyuze muri Afurika yo munsi y'Ubutayu bwa Sahara no muri Amerika y'Epfo.
Umunyamabanga nshingwabikorwa wa REN21, Christine Lins yagize ati: "Iyi raporo itanga ibitekerezo byinshi by'impuguke, kandi igamije gukurura ibiganiro no kujya impaka ku mahirwe n'imbogamizi zo kugera ku 100% by'ingufu zishobora kubaho mu kinyejana cya mbere rwagati." “Gutekereza kwifuza ntibizatugeza aho; gusa mu gusobanukirwa neza ibibazo no kwishora mu biganiro byerekeranye n'uburyo bwo kubikemura, guverinoma zishobora gushyiraho politiki iboneye ndetse n’ishoramari mu rwego rwo kwihutisha gahunda yo kohereza. ”
Umuyobozi wa REN21, Arthouros Zervos, yongeyeho ko bake bari kuba bizeye mu 2004 (igihe REN21 yashingwaga) ko mu mwaka wa 2016 ingufu zishobora kongera ingufu zingana na 86% by'amashanyarazi mashya yose y’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi, cyangwa se ko Ubushinwa buzaba ingufu z’amashanyarazi akomeye ku isi. Zervos yagize ati: "Guhamagarira ingufu 100% zishobora kuvugururwa ntabwo byafatanywe uburemere." Ati: “Uyu munsi, impuguke zikomeye ku isi zirimo gukora ibiganiro byumvikana ku bijyanye n'uko bishoboka, ndetse no mu gihe cyagenwe.”
Ibisubizo by'inyongera
Raporo 'impaka 12' yibanze ku ngingo zitandukanye, cyane cyane ibaza hafi 100% by’ingufu zishobora kongera ingufu, ariko kandi zikurikira: ni gute imbaraga z’ingufu ku isi n’ingufu zishobora guhuzwa neza; ni 'uwatsinze afata byose' mugihe cyo kubyara ingufu zishobora kuvugururwa; gushyushya amashanyarazi bizasimbuza ubushyuhe; ni bangahe ku isoko imodoka zizakoresha amashanyarazi zizasaba; ni ububiko umunywanyi cyangwa ushyigikiye amashanyarazi; ibishoboka mumijyi mega, hamwe nibishobora kuvugururwa ubushobozi bwo kuzamura ingufu kuri bose.
Impuguke 114 zabajijwe zaturutse ku isi yose, kandi raporo ya REN21 yashyize hamwe ibisubizo byabo ku turere. Uku nuburyo impuguke za buri karere zashubije:
●Kuri Afurika, ubwumvikane bugaragara ni uko impaka zo kubona ingufu zikomeje gutwikira impaka 100% zishobora kuvugururwa.
●Muri Ositaraliya na Oceania icy'ingenzi ni uko hari byinshi byitezwe ku 100% bishobora kuvugururwa.
●Impuguke z’Abashinwa zemeza ko uturere tumwe na tumwe tw’Ubushinwa dushobora kugera ku 100% bishobora kuvugururwa, ariko bakizera ko iyi ari intego ikomeye cyane ku isi.
Impungenge nyamukuru z’Uburayi ni uguha inkunga ikomeye 100% ishobora kuvugururwa mu kurwanya imihindagurikire y’ikirere.
●Mu Buhinde, impaka zishobora kuvugururwa 100% ziracyakomeza, kimwe cya kabiri cy’ababajijwe bemeza ko intego idashoboka mu 2050.
● Ku karere ka Latam, impaka zigera ku 100% zishobora kuvugururwa ntiziratangira, hamwe nibindi bibazo byingutu biri kumeza.
Impuguke mu gihugu zavuze ko imbogamizi z’Ubuyapani zigabanya ibyo ziteganijwe ku bijyanye n’uko hashobora kuvugururwa 100%.
● Muri Amerika hari gushidikanya gukomeye hafi 100% bishobora kuvugururwa hamwe ninzobere ebyiri kuri umunani gusa zizeye ko zishobora kubaho.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Jun-03-2019